Show Notes 10.17.09

Posted on October 16, 2009. Filed under: Show Notes |

2010 ECONOMIC RECOVERY

WHERE WE ARE NOW: FORECAST FOR REST OF 2009
- GDP TO DECLINE Q4 2009
- HOUSING “CANT GET MUCH LOWER”
RECOVERY IN 2010
- LABOR MARKETS
- STOCK MARKET
- HOUSING
2010—TOO OPTIMISTIC?
- FOCUS: HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT UNTIL 2011 WILL BE TOUGH ON ECONOMY
FLORIDA UNEMPLOYEMENT: FLORIDA ECONOMISTS PUSH RECOVERY TIL SPRING
- TAMPA BAY
- SOUTH FLORIDA
- CENTRAL FLORIDA
TOP 10 TIPS FOR 2010 TO GROW YOUR SMALL BUSINESS
- FOCUS: VERY REAL TRENDS COMING IN TO 2010
- UNFAIR COMPETITION
- GETTING BACK TO BASICS

2010 ECONOMIC RECOVERY

ONE OF THE FEW PEOPLE WHO SAW THE US ECONOMIC CRISIS COMING, INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT PRESIDENT MED YONES, IS NOW PREDICTING THAT THE ECONOMY WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER IN 2010.

THE IIM IS NOT A FAN OF EXPENSIVE STIMULUS PACKAGES. IT INSTEAD FAVORS JOB CREATION THROUGH FUNDING FOR SMALL BUSINESSES, “THE MOST COST EFFECTIVE AND QUICKEST METHOD TO STIMULATE THE U.S. ECONOMY IS TO SUPPORT JOB CREATION THROUGH US SMALL BUSINESSES AND INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT. U.S. CENSUS BUREAU STATISTICS SHOW THAT 98 PERCENT OF ALL U.S. FIRMS HAVE LESS THAN 100 EMPLOYEES. THESE 27 MILLION SMALL BUSINESSES CREATE OVER 85 PERCENT OF ALL NEW JOBS AND EMPLOY OVER 56 PERCENT OF ALL PRIVATE SECTOR WORKERS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS SHOULD BE INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT, EXPORT AND EMPLOYMENT SUPPORT. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE A MUCH LESS BURDEN ON THE TAXPAYERS; IT CAN BE IMPLEMENTED WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEW LEGISLATION, AND WOULD HAVE A MUCH FASTER POSITIVE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY.”

THEY ALSO ARGUE FOR STRICT OVERSIGHT OF ANY RECOVERY PLAN, OVERSIGHT IS CRITICAL TO THE SUCCESS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY STIMULUS PROGRAM, “THE EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT PROGRAM EXECUTION IS NECESSARY TO AVOID WASTE, FRAUD, AND THE ABUSE OF LOOPHOLES TO DIVERT THESE FUNDS TO SPECIAL INTEREST PROGRAMS. IF THE OBJECTIVE OF PRESIDENT-ELECT OBAMA IS TO LEAD THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY THROUGH THE MIDDLE CLASS, THE JOB CREATION INITIATIVE THROUGH SMALL BUSINESS AND INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT, WOULD BE HITTING 3 BIRDS WITH ONE STONE (SUSTAINABLE JOB CREATION, MIDDLE CLASS SUPPORT, AND INCREASING US BUSINESSES COMPETITIVENESS THROUGH INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT).”

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THE EXPENSE ELIMINATIONS WE’VE SEEN FROM MOST CORPORATIONS REPRESENT TEMPORARY CUTS WHICH ASSUME A TYPICAL “POST-RECESSION” ECONOMIC RECOVERY. BUT THIS WASN’T AND ISN’T A RECESSION. THIS IS THE END OF AN 80-YEAR ECONOMIC EXPANSION LARGELY FUELED BY DEBT. AND AS A RESULT, WHAT LIES AHEAD OF US WILL BE A MUCH LONGER TERM “L,” REQUIRING A FAR MORE DRAMATIC RESPONSE.

ANALYSTS HAVE LATELY TENDED TO INTERPRET NUMBERS OR STATISTICS THAT ARE “LESS BAD” AS SIGNS OF RECOVERY. THEY GLANCE BACK AT PREVIOUS RECOVERIES AND SAY, “NOW LOOKS LIKE THEN. WHEN SUCH AND SUCH HAPPENS, IT MEANS THAT RECOVERY IS ON THE WAY. THEREFORE, WE SHOULD BUY STOCKS (OR WHATEVER).”

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FLORIDA, ORLANDO

FLORIDA’S LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR INCREASED FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH IN JULY, A SIGN THAT THE STATE’S SEVERELY PUMMELED BUSINESS SECTOR MIGHT BEGIN TO RECOVER EARLY NEXT YEAR.

NEW HAMPSHIRE-BASED E-FORECASTING, WHICH COMPILES FINANCIAL RESEARCH FOR ORLANDO BUSINESS JOURNAL, FOUND THAT SIX OF 10 INDICATORS IMPROVED IN JULY. THE COMPONENTS MEASURE MONTH-TO-MONTH CHANGES.

THE INDICATORS IMPROVING FROM JUNE TO JULY WERE: UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS, THE OUTLOOK FOR INTERNATIONAL TOURISM, STATE CONSUMER SENTIMENT, NATIONAL STOCK PRICES, THE INTEREST RATE SPREAD AND THE NATIONAL TECHNOLOGY INDEX.

MEANWHILE, FOUR OTHER INDICATORS — BUILDING PERMITS, WEEKLY HOURS FOR PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING EXPORTS AND THE WILLINGNESS FOR U.S. RESIDENTS TO TAKE VACATIONS — FELL IN JULY WHEN COMPARED TO JUNE.